Iran is bracing for an economic storm as the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House looms large.

Under Trump’s first term in office, Iran’s oil exports plummeted to a mere 250,000 barrels per day following an imposition of full sanctions in 2019. Under Biden’s watch, exports have rebounded to around 1.5 million barrels daily, primarily through covert sales to China.

However, this recovery stands on shaky ground as the Iranian rial remains weak and vulnerable to sudden devaluation against major currencies. If Trump revisits his maximum pressure campaign against Iran, it could devastate the country’s already staggering 40% annual inflation rate.

Furthermore, Iran’s banks are facing financial collapse, having extended tens of billions in unrecoverable credit to politically favored individuals and inefficient state-owned businesses. Key national expenditures, such as healthcare and power grids, have been trimmed to unsustainable levels, forcing around 30 million people to sink below the poverty line, according to Iran International.

During his campaign, President-Elect Masoud Pezeshkian admitted that current budget constraints make it impossible to ease the people’s hardships quickly. Even if a deal to normalize relations with the US materializes soon, he estimates it would take two years for any positive impact to be felt.

Of course, the regime’s budget could be significantly improved if expenditures on its illegal nuclear program and billions of dollars to support its terror proxies in the Middle East were cut off. Unfortunately, such a hope will always remain a dream as the incoming president has vowed to support Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi terrorists in Yemen.

Facing limited options, Pezeshkian may resort to slashing energy subsidies, inevitably raising prices on essentials like gas and electricity. Such action could reignite tensions, mirroring the 2019 gasoline price hike protests that resulted in 1,500 civilian deaths.