Questioning the Numbers: A Critical Look at Gaza’s Reported Casualties

A recent article in Tablet Magazine casts doubt on the Gaza Health Ministry’s casualty figures, suggesting they may be fabricated.

The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza has reported over 30,000 deaths since the war’s onset, predominantly women and children. This statistic has been referenced often by mainstream media. Leading U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden, have also referenced the statistic lending it to international credibility.

In an analysis for Tablet Magazine, statistician Abraham Wyner challenges the credibility of the daily casualty reports issued by the Gaza Health Ministry from October 26 to November 11, 2023. Wyner suggests that the figures are “not real”, which he claims is obvious “to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work.”

Wyner highlights several anomalies that question the figures’ authenticity. One striking example is the daily casualty reports’ unnatural consistency. Instead of fluctuating as expected in a war zone, the numbers increase in a linear fashion, suggesting they might be fabricated. 

Wyner also argues statistical analysis shows no significant correlation between the reported numbers of women and children casualties. This contradicts the expected pattern where high casualties in one group would correlate with high casualties in the other, given the nature of military strikes on residential areas.